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ACUS02 KWNS 201713
SWODY2
SPC AC 201713

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1213 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...OHIO VALLEY AND
MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe thunderstorms with isolated damaging wind gusts
are possible from the central Plains eastward into the Ohio Valley
and Mid-Atlantic states on Sunday.

...Central Plains/Mid Mississippi Valley/Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic...

Westerly mid-level flow will be in place on Sunday from the lower
Missouri Valley eastward to the Mid-Atlantic. A couple ripples in
the mid-level flow are forecast to move eastward across the region.
At the surface, a cold front will advance southward into the central
Plains extending eastward into the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.
Along and ahead of the front, surface dewpoints should be in the
lower 70s F, resulting in an east to west corridor of moderate
instability from late morning into the afternoon. Scattered
thunderstorm development will be possible along parts of the front
where low-level convergence becomes maximized and along pre-existing
outflow boundaries. Forecast soundings just south of the forecast
position of the front late Sunday afternoon at Topeka, St. Louis,
Indianapolis and Philadelphia generally show weak deep layer shear
profiles. In spite of this, low-level lapse rates are forecast to be
steep with MLCAPE peaking in the 2000 to 4000 J/kg range. This
environment should be enough for marginally severe wind gusts with
the stronger pulse storms or multicells. Parts of the marginal risk
area may have potential for a more substantial wind damage threat,
especially if a cold pool can develop. However, the placement and
timing of cold pool development will depend upon mesoscale
conditions that can not be predicted at this time.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:   2%     - Marginal
Wind:      5%     - Marginal
Hail:      5%     - Marginal

..Broyles.. 07/20/2019

$$


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