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ACUS01 KWNS 201651
SWODY1
SPC AC 201649

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

Valid 201630Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF MN/IA/WI/MI/IL...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AND FRONT RANGE/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts are expected
this afternoon into tonight across portions of Iowa, southern
Wisconsin into southern Lower Michigan and far northern Illinois.

...Iowa/southern Minnesota/Wisconsin/Lower Michigan/Illinois...
An intense bow echo capable of a heightened damaging wind risk/brief
tornado potential continues to quickly spread eastward at midday
across far east-central/northeast Wisconsin toward Lake Michigan,
with this activity likely to cross the lake and continue into Lower
Michigan this afternoon, with other peripheral development expected
to the south within a destabilizing air mass.

Farther the west, an eastward-accelerating squall line continues to
progress eastward along the Iowa/Minnesota (roughly 50 miles either
side) border. This will continue to favor the roughly west/east
outflow-reinforced boundary where the combination of
buoyancy/vertical shear is maximized. This complex will likely favor
a corridor near/south of the prior early-day MCS (first paragraph),
with an increasing damaging wind risk expected from southeast
Minnesota/northeast Iowa into southern Wisconsin this afternoon.

Other potentially severe storms may develop/expand southward tonight
across Iowa/northern Illinois near the southward-advancing front
where a reservoir of ample moisture/buoyancy will exist. Some hail
will be possible, but damaging winds may be the most probable risk
even with a tendency for elevated storms late tonight.

...Wyoming/Colorado Front Range to central High Plains...
Across the central High Plains, the initial frontal push will
support north-northeasterly surface winds this afternoon, with
upslope flow into the Front Range and Raton Mesa. Mid/upper-level
winds will be weak from the west-southwest. Initial storm
development and intensification is expected along/into the
foothills/I-25 corridor this afternoon with some hail/wind
potential, but a slow eastward-moving cluster may evolve over
east-central/southeast Colorado with an increasing damaging wind
risk. This threat should eventually diminish towards late evening as
convection becomes increasingly undercut/elevated with strengthening
low-level stability behind a secondary frontal surge.

...Lower Great Lakes/Northeast States/New England...
In a moist/unstable air mass, isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms capable of localized downbursts will be possible this
afternoon with maturing thunderstorm development in the lee of the
Great Lakes and/or near a Northeast States surface trough. Other
strong storms could move into northern New England late tonight.

..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/20/2019

$$


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