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AWUS01 KWNH 201526
FFGMPD
GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-202030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0641
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1125 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2019

Areas affected...Alabama, Northwest Georgia, Far Southeast
Tennessee

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 201524Z - 202030Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms should gradually develop today
across portions of the Southeast. These storms will be
slow-moving, and the strongest storms could produce rain rates to
around 2-3 inches per hour. This may lead to localized flash
flooding across the region.

Discussion...Some areas of convection were already ongoing this
morning across the Southeast. The greatest concentration was along
the southern half of the MS-AL border region ahead of a
westward-drifting, inverted mid-upper level trough. As the
boundary layer gradually destabilizes, convection should gradually
become more widespread into the early afternoon. GOES-16 Air Mass
and Simple Water Vapor RGBs showed an axis of deeper moisture
stretching SW-NE from S MS into C AL and N GA. This also showed up
in the CIRA layer precipitable water products, particularly above
700mb, and the LIX, JAN, BMX and FFC soundings at 12Z all reported
PW values near or above 2 inches. The corridor of deeper moisture
should be supportive of more efficient rain production and
represents a region where hourly rain rates exceeding 2 inches per
hour are more likely. Indeed, 12Z HREF neighborhood probabilities
have a relative maximum of chances of 2 in/hr rain rates in this
same area over the next several hours. Deep layer mean winds
reported on the 12Z soundings and analyzed by the RAP are around 5
knots or less, so thunderstorms should drift slowly until they
could develop a cold pool. Even after that point, storm mergers
could lead to an appearance of stalling where outflow boundaries
collide or storms coalesce. Any of these factors will lead to
localized areas where heavy rain can last for an extended period
of time, and may lead to flash flooding. A greater concentration
of thunderstorms, and thus an increased chance of storm mergers,
may also develop in C AL due to several factors: (1) greater
moisture content, (2) convective outflows and/or sea breeze
propagating inland with time, and (3) an abundance of convective
outflows already.

Lamers

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...MOB...MRX...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   35378548 34778417 33988369 33238429 32158549
            31248684 31088767 31788835 33408792 34938674



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