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ACUS11 KWNS 201508
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201508
MIZ000-201715-

Mesoscale Discussion 1543
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1008 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

Areas affected...Central/Southern Lower Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 201508Z - 201715Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts and large hail possible with
strongest storms. Longevity of this activity is rather uncertain. A
WW is not likely in the near term unless convective trends warrant.
A more substantial threat should develop this afternoon with
activity moving in from Wisconsin.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of convection along a low-level boundary has
persisted in portions of northern/central Lower Michigan this
morning. 12Z CAM guidance has struggled to handle this activity.
While this activity is expected to remain elevated in the short
term, the downstream airmass is cloud-free and expected to continue
destabilizing into the afternoon. If this activity is able to
persist, the northerly shear vector indicates it would move into
more buoyant air with time. The greatest source of uncertainty with
this activity is whether it will be able to overcome subsidence,
evident in 12 APX and DTX soundings, in the wake of a MCV now moving
into Lake Erie. The current activity will be capable of isolated
damaging wind gusts and large hail given around 40-45 kts of
effective shear and mid-level lapse rates of 8-8.5 C/km. Given the
uncertainties, a WW is not likely. Trends will be monitored,
however. A greater threat for severe weather will exist this
afternoon with activity moving into Lower Michigan from Wisconsin.

..Wendt/Guyer.. 07/20/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

LAT...LON   43928636 44288604 44288494 43888410 43008387 42428452
            42258578 42518635 43238654 43928636



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