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AWUS01 KWNH 201404
FFGMPD
MIZ000-201830-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0640
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1003 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2019

Areas affected...central MI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 201403Z - 201830Z

Summary...An expansion of heavy rain across portions of central
Lower  MI is expected to lead to possible flash flooding through
late this morning. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr will be possible
with localized 2-4 inch totals through 18Z.

Discussion...A narrow axis of training heavy rain was observed
across western Lower Michigan at 1330Z with KGRR dual-pol
estimates of 3-4 inches. However, actual observed rainfall totals
are a bit uncertain given small hail may be contaminating radar
estimates with the highest available ground through 1330Z closer
to about 2 inches just east of Big Sable Point. Nonetheless, a
threat for flash flooding will exist across portions of central
Lower Michigan in the near term. The SPC mesoanalysis from 13Z
indicated a small region of uncapped MUCAPE near 3500 J/kg
extending about 50 miles inland from the eastern shore of Lake
Michigan between Little Sable Point and Traverse City. The
convection was elevated in nature, driven by warm advection
occurring well north of a remnant outflow boundary which pushed
through the region overnight.

Given the alignment of low level winds parallel to and stronger
than deeper layer mean flow, training and repeating of convection
is likely. Through 18Z, little change to the low level flow is
anticipated but continued advection of rich low level moisture
into the region is expected to linger, with 12Z RAOBs indicating
850 mb dewpoints between 16 C (GRB) and 19 C (DVN) upstream. The
increase in low level moisture is expected to erode dry air and
MUCIN present in the 850-700 mb layer inferred across central
Lower Michigan based on 12Z soundings from APX and DTX. As this
occurs, an expansion of convection toward the east is expected
with rainfall rates peaking in the 1-2 in/hr range. The repeating
and training nature could lead to 2-4 inch totals through 18Z and
possible flash flooding. Most of the available hi-res models do
not have a good handle on this situation so confidence is reduced
compared to average.

Otto

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...DTX...GRR...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   44518330 43728252 43088260 42858405 43218667
            44388660


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