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ACUS01 KWNS 201253
SWODY1
SPC AC 201251

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

Valid 201300Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN
WI/LOWER MI...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN CO...

...SUMMARY...
Damaging wind gusts are most likely this afternoon across southern
Wisconsin into southern Lower Michigan.

...Central High Plains to Great Lakes...
Early-day convection is ongoing across eastern SD through southern
MN north of a surface front that extends east-northeast of a surface
cyclone centered across western NE. This activity will likely
persist through the day, spreading east and reinforcing the
southward progression of the front in its wake. This process will
shunt the strongly unstable air mass (MLCAPE > 3000 J/kg) southward,
becoming increasingly displaced from the belt of moderate to strong
500-mb westerlies from the MO Valley westward.

There will be an opportunity for the linear cluster currently in
eastern SD to merge with the southern MN activity and reintensify
midday towards the peak buoyancy corridor (driven by mid to upper
70s surface dew points beneath an elevated mixed-layer) centered on
southern WI. Adequate deep-layer shear should exist for an organized
MCS capable of producing strong to scattered severe wind gusts
eastward into southern Lower MI through early evening.

Across the central High Plains, the initial frontal push will
support north-northeasterly surface winds this afternoon, with
upslope flow into the Front Range and Raton Mesa. Mid/upper-level
winds will be weak from the west-southwest. However, this may be
sufficient to support a slow northeast-moving cluster towards the
peak buoyancy plume over east-central CO. Will maintain a small
Slight Risk in this region for severe wind. This threat should
diminish towards late evening as convection becomes increasingly
undercut/elevated with strengthening low-level stability behind a
secondary frontal surge.

..Grams/Gleason.. 07/20/2019

$$


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