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AWUS01 KWNH 201210
FFGMPD
WIZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-201615-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0639
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
810 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2019

Areas affected...southern MN into central WI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 201209Z - 201615Z

Summary...Training and repeating of convection will lead to
locally heavy rain from southern MN into central WI. Rainfall
rates of 1-2 in/hr at times will lead to maximum additional
rainfall totals of 2-4 inches by 16Z.

Discussion...Convection continued to expand across portions of
southern MN as of 1120Z within a west-east axis of favorable,
uncapped instability in the vicinity of an 850 mb front according
to RAP analyses. The storms were forming within a narrow corridor
from eastern SD into west-central WI where the SPC mesoanalysis
indicated MUCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg and precipitable water
values within a tenth or two of 2 inches, but north of an area of
convective inhibition located to the south across IA given warm
temperatures in the 850-700 mb layer. Individual cell motions were
averaging from the WSW at 20-30 kt while 700 mb winds were SW
between 30-35 kt via KFSD VAD wind data, with 700 mb a decent
proxy for inflow into the growing complex given its elevated
nature between 700-800 mb.

Short term forecasts from the RAP indicate strengthening 700 mb
flow across the southern half of MN through 18Z, reaching into the
40-50 kt range ahead of an eastward advancing wave currently over
SD. Given the alignment of LFC-EL layer mean winds with 700 mb
flow, with 700 mb flow in excess of the layer mean wind, repeating
and training of convection is likely to continue into the late
morning hours. 2-4 inches of rain is expected through 16Z with the
focus for heaviest rainfall expected just north of I-90. With
Flash Flood Guidance values for 3 hours ranging between 1.5 and
2.5 inches, flash flooding appears likely.

Otto

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...ARX...FSD...GRB...MKX...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   45429589 45129260 44958904 44248856 43858917
            43619143 43679391 43739609 44149669 44979674



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