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ACUS11 KWNS 201002
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201002
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-201130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1539
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0502 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

Areas affected...Portions of eastern SD into southwestern MN and
northwestern IA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 201002Z - 201130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail may occur with storms developing
across southeastern South Dakota into southwestern Minnesota. Other
storms moving into eastern South Dakota may produce isolated severe
wind gusts. Watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...Lift associated with warm air advection mainly in the
850-700 mb layer has recently encouraged isolated elevated
thunderstorms to develop near the SD/MN border. A large reservoir of
instability is present above 850 mb (MUCAPE of 3000-4000+ J/kg)
across parts of southeastern SD into southwestern MN. Although this
area lies on the southern fringe of enhanced mid/upper-level
westerlies, there should be enough speed shear present in the
cloud-bearing layer to support organized updrafts. Isolated large
hail may occur with initially semi-discrete storms across this
region, and perhaps into northwestern IA as well. A small line
segment that has produced multiple measured severe wind gusts across
central SD will continue eastward this morning. As this convection
moves along a strong instability gradient, it may have the potential
to produce additional isolated severe/damaging wind gusts for the
next few hours into parts of eastern SD. Severe Thunderstorm Watch
issuance is possible to account for both the hail and wind threat
associated with these two regimes.

..Gleason/Grams.. 07/20/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON   43519926 44199865 45109868 44959714 44679538 44359441
            43989406 43639416 43219447 43099489 43139922 43519926



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