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ACUS11 KWNS 200902
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200902
SDZ000-201000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1538
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0402 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

Areas affected...Portions of western/central SD

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 527...

Valid 200902Z - 201000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 527
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated hail/wind threat may persist mainly across parts
of central South Dakota for the next hour or so. Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 527 may be allowed to expire at 10Z if current trends
continue.

DISCUSSION...Storms have formed into a couple of small line segments
across central SD over the past couple of hours to the north of a
front. This activity will remain elevated above a near-surface
stable layer, although two recent measured gusts to 70 and 76 mph in
central SD suggest there is still some potential for isolated severe
winds to reach the surface. Marginally severe hail may also occur
with the strongest cores for the next hour or so as persistent
strong shear allows for some updraft organization. Recent radar
trends have shown a gradual decrease in strong reflectivity cores
aloft, and the overall severe threat should remain quite isolated
across central into eastern SD through the rest of the early
morning. Unless observational trends suggest otherwise in the next
hour, Severe Thunderstorm Watch 527 may be allowed to expire as
scheduled at 10Z.

..Gleason.. 07/20/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...

LAT...LON   44150103 44380255 44850252 45050169 45090093 45270046
            45519980 45549876 44239878 44150103



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