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ACUS03 KWNS 200724
SWODY3
SPC AC 200723

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY EASTWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging gusts are possible from the Ohio Valley into the
Mid-Atlantic states on Monday and southern New England Monday night.

...Synopsis...
The upper-air pattern over the contiguous United States will amplify
on Monday and feature a mid-level anticyclone located over the Four
Corners and a large-scale trough over the eastern 1/3 of the Lower
48 states.  By Monday afternoon, a surface low is forecast to
develop in the Mid-Atlantic states and develop northeastward into
New England by Monday night.  A cold front will move from the OH
Valley southeastward into the southern Appalachians by Monday night.

...OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic states...
Ongoing showers and thunderstorms are forecast Monday morning over
the OH Valley near and north of the boundary.  Despite the presence
of considerable convective-related cloud cover, the airmass to the
south and east of the storms will destabilize.  Rich low-level
moisture with surface dewpoints in the 70s degrees F will contribute
to moderate instability west of the Appalachians and perhaps greater
instability near Chesapeake Bay by early-mid afternoon.
Thunderstorms will preferentially develop along the front over the
Allegheny mountains and move into the area east of the higher
terrain by late afternoon/early evening.  A belt of slightly
stronger mid-level flow is forecast to glance the area north of the
Mason-Dixon line.  However, there is uncertainty regarding the
magnitude of destabilization with weaker buoyancy forecast farther
north, perhaps limiting severe gust potential.  Isolated wind damage
owing to gusts ranging from 40-60mph are the primary severe hazard.

...Southern New England...
A moisture-rich airmass will probably reside from the greater NYC
area north into southern New England prior to storm development to
the west by mid-late afternoon.  Model guidance currently shows a
surface low developing northeast to the west of the immediate coast
during the evening into overnight.  Forecast soundings show deep
layer shear supportive of organized storm structures with 1000-1500
J/kg MUCAPE.  Despite the timing of the severe risk primarily after
dusk, the maintenance of a warm sector to the east/southeast of the
low may result in a scenario for a couple of stronger storms.

..Smith.. 07/20/2019

$$


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