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ACUS11 KWNS 200700
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200700
SDZ000-200800-

Mesoscale Discussion 1537
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

Areas affected...Portions of western/central SD

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 527...

Valid 200700Z - 200800Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 527
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail should continue to be the main threat
across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 527, although strong/gusty winds
cannot be ruled out.

DISCUSSION...A few supercells have developed in a strongly sheared
environment early this morning across northwestern SD. A surface
front is located across eastern WY into NE, well south of this
ongoing convection. These storms will likely remain elevated above a
surface inversion, with large hail around 1-1.5 inches in diameter
being the main threat given 50-60+ kt of effective bulk shear. A
notable instability gradient exists across SD, with most of these
storms located on the northern extent of sufficient buoyancy to
support strong to severe thunderstorms. Recent radar trends have
shown a tendency for storm mergers, and a small cluster may
ultimately develop and move eastward into central SD. Isolated
strong to damaging winds cannot be completely ruled out if storms
grow upscale, although the low levels are not as unstable early this
morning compared to yesterday morning.

..Gleason.. 07/20/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...

LAT...LON   45210400 45270279 45460178 45940100 45920029 44229989
            44010103 44010203 44140397 45210400



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