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ACUS01 KWNS 200558
SWODY1
SPC AC 200557

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST
IA...SOUTHERN WI...NORTHERN IL...AND LOWER MI AND EASTERN CO...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of wind damage and hail will be
possible today across parts of the central and northern Plains
east-northeastward into the Lower Michigan. Severe storms will also
be possible from southeast Wyoming into eastern Colorado.

...Northern/Central Plains...Upper MS Valley...Upper Great Lakes
Early morning surface analysis places a low over eastern WY. A cold
front extends eastward from this low across northern NE and then
northeastward across northwest IA and south-central MN into northern
WI. A strong low-level jet will promote warm-air advection across
this frontal zone, contributing to elevated showers and
thunderstorms that will likely persist into the morning across SD.
These showers and thunderstorms will help reinforce the cold front,
which is expected to remain largely stationary through the
mid-morning. This area will be on the southern periphery of the
stronger flow aloft and the resulting vertical shear may support
storm organization and occasional updrafts strong enough to produce
severe hail. Linear storm structures are also possible, but
low-level stability should prevent any strong downdrafts from
reaching the surface through about mid-morning.

Given diurnal heating and the slow-moving character of cold front,
the potential for surface-based storms will increase with eastern
extent. This could result in a few stronger storms from northeast IA
across southern WI/northern IL into Lower MI where the air mass is
expected to recover quickly in the wake of this mornings MCS. Steep
low-level lapse rates, ample low-level moisture, and relatively warm
mid-levels support the development of strong downdrafts. Very strong
buoyancy (i.e. 3500+ J/kg of MLCAPE) will also support the potential
for large hail and perhaps a brief tornado.

...Central High Plains...
Dewpoints are expected to be around 60 after the cold front moves
through the region during the late afternoon. Given the
southwesterly flow aloft, storms developing over the higher terrain
may move off the terrain into the more moist, post-frontal air mass
across eastern CO/WY. Increased instability and vertical shear
supports the potential for storms capable of large hail and strong
wind gusts.

..Mosier/Bentley.. 07/20/2019

$$


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