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ACUS02 KWNS 200454
SWODY2
SPC AC 200453

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1153 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the lower Missouri
Valley eastward into the southern Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic
states on Sunday.  Damaging gusts are the primary hazard.

...Synopsis...
A belt of moderate to strong mid-level flow will be relegated to the
Upper Midwest east to New England.  Embedded within this flow, a
shortwave trough will move from the Dakotas to the Great Lakes.
Farther south, a flattened mid-level ridge will encompass a large
area of the contiguous U.S. from the Mid-Atlantic states and
Southeast westward across the southern Great Plains and into the
Desert Southwest.  In the low levels, a cold front, augmented by
convective outflow, will push southward across the central Great
Plains and Midwest.

...Lower MO Valley into the southern Great Lakes...
Diurnal heating along and south of the front will contribute to a
moderately to very unstable airmass by mid afternoon from the lower
MO Valley into northern portions of IL/IN/OH and southern Lower MI.
Model guidance continues to show stronger flow aloft displaced to
the north of the warm sector which will result in a wind profile for
multicells.  Relatively weak capping over the southern Great Lakes
will promote storm development in the form of a few clusters
potentially capable of an isolated damaging wind risk.  Farther
west, upwards of 3000+ MLCAPE over MO and steep low-level lapse
rates may yield a wind/hail risk with the stronger cores.  Some of
the thunderstorms may continue through the evening but the severe
risk will likely decrease owing to the loss of heating.

...Mid-Atlantic states...
A reservoir of rich low-level moisture and strong heating will
contribute to a moderate to very unstable airmass by early afternoon
as surface temperatures warm into the 90s-100 degrees F range east
of the higher terrain.  A lee trough will aid in focusing storm
development and a couple of thunderstorms clusters are forecast.
Forecast soundings show very weak westerly flow through the
troposphere which should result in slow-moving storms.  However,
steep 0-2km lapse rates around 9 degrees C/km and 2 inches PW may
support a couple of vigorous water-loaded downdrafts yielding
localized gusts 40-55mph.  Pockets of wind damage may accompany the
strongest thunderstorms.

...New England...
Some recent model guidance shows weak to moderate instability
developing by midday, particularly for areas east of the higher
terrain in southern ME and southern New England.  Although stronger
westerly flow fields are forecast than areas farther south, there is
uncertainty regarding storm coverage and intensity; for these
reasons, will preclude a 5-percent area at this time.

...MS/AL and FL Peninsula...
Areas of scattered diurnal thunderstorms are forecast across this
general region by the early-mid afternoon.  Weak shear profiles will
result in pulse thunderstorms.  Steepening 0-2km lapse rates in a
moist/poor mid-level lapse rate environment will support water
loaded downdrafts with the strongest thunderstorms.  Pockets of
40-55mph gusts may result in localized wind damage.  This activity
will largely dissipate by early evening.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:  <2%     - None
Wind:      5%     - Marginal
Hail:      5%     - Marginal

..Smith.. 07/20/2019

$$


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