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ACUS11 KWNS 200333
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200333
SDZ000-NEZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-200500-

Mesoscale Discussion 1535
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1033 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

Areas affected...far southeast MT...northeast WY and western/central
SD

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 200333Z - 200500Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity the
next few hours. The strongest storms may produce large hail. Trends
will be monitored for possible watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Convection is developing late this evening in moist
upslope flow coincident with warm advection atop a surface cold
front and EML located around the 850-700 mb layer. The 00z UNR RAOB
showed steep midlevel lapse rates above the EML with moderate
instability across the MCD area. Effective shear is quite strong
this evening, with 50+ kt indicated in 00z RAOBs and depicted by 03z
mesoanalysis, which will support organized cells/clusters. Long,
straight hodographs will increase potential for hail in the
strongest storms, though the elevated nature of convection should
temper damaging wind threat the next several hours. However, some
guidance suggest some potential for upscale growth into forward
propagating clusters/bowing segments overnight. If this occurs,
damaging wind potential could increase after 06-07Z. Given a lack of
strong upper level forcing, there is some uncertainty in the exact
evolution of the threat and how widespread severe potential will be.
Trends will continue to be monitored for possible watch issuance in
the next couple of hours.

..Leitman/Thompson.. 07/20/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...CYS...BYZ...

LAT...LON   44070555 44810570 45370534 45760401 45920197 45769991
            45329933 44189967 43939980 43190176 42940307 42970460
            43550514 44070555



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