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AWUS01 KWNH 200323
FFGMPD
WIZ000-MNZ000-200915-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0636
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1122 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019

Areas affected...Central Wisconsin

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 200315Z - 200915Z

Summary...An MCS diving southeastward through Wisconsin will
continue to produce heavy rainfall overnight. As the MCS moves to
the south, its outflow parallel to a warm front and the mean cloud
layer flow will become favorable for regeneration and training of
echoes as the moist LLJ lifts atop the boundary. Rainfall rates of
2"/hr will be possible, and 1-3" of rain with locally higher
amounts are expected. This may lead to flash flooding, especially
across areas with relatively lower FFG.

Discussion...A large trailing stratiform MCS was identified via
regional radar mosaic dropping southeast across central Wisconsin
along an analyzed warm front. This feature is being driven by
robust moist inflow noted by a 30-40kts 850mb LLJ on local VWPS,
driving PWATs to near 2 inches, 2.5 standard deviations above the
climatological mean. Although the leading edge of this feature is
becoming outflow dominated and racing southeastward, its trailing
outflow to the west is expected to continue to serve as a focus
for convective regeneration, with training of thunderstorms
potentially producing a flash flooding threat.

Recent RAP analyzed MUCape was still as high as 6000 J/kg across
far southeast MN and into southwest WI. This instability is being
lifted northeast on the nose of the persistent 850mb LLJ,
producing a pre-convective thermodynamic environment that will
remain highly favorable for strong convection and MCS maintenance.
Recent rainfall has exceeded 1-1.5" in 1 hr at a few observations
across WI, and these rain rates are forecast to persist as noted
by moderate HREF neighborhood probabilities for 1"/hr. As the MCS
drops more to the southeast along both the gradient of MUCape and
850-300mb thickness, its western outflow will become increasingly
aligned to the mean 0-6km flow, while remaining at an angle
favorable for isentropic lift of the moist LLJ. During this time,
layer Corfidi vectors for backward propagation drop to near 0,
suggesting backbuilding of echoes with excessive rainfall rates in
an efficient warm cloud environment. The latest WoFS runs depict
this boundary clearly serving as a focus for a flash flood threat,
noted by 70%+ probability for 3" of rainfall and very slow
eastward translation of the composite max reflectivity.

This area has been wet recently as well, with AHPS 14-day rainfall
departures reaching 200-300% of normal across portions of
south-central WI. This is coincident with relatively lowered 1-hr
and 3-hr FFG of 1-1.5". Although the leading edge of this MCS will
produce heavy rain rates, where the training develops along the
outflow will be the most favorable location for any flash flooding
through the overnight hours.

Weiss

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...GRB...MKX...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   45258914 45248916 45228864 45038802 44828768
            44508755 44148757 43928778 43778808 43688854
            43618905 43608961 43599034 43599062 43679099
            43859132 44049154 44309166 44669144 45009088
            45189000


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