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AWUS01 KWNH 192255
FFGMPD
PAZ000-200230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0634
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
655 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019

Areas affected...Northwest Pennsylvania

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 192253Z - 200230Z

Summary...Thunderstorms have pushed into northern Pennsylvania and
may begin to align in a corridor in northwest parts of the state.
This could produce a swath of locally heavy rainfall, which may
lead to flash flooding. Rain rates could reach 2 inches per hour.

Discussion...A squall line has advanced into northern
Pennsylvania, and the western extent of the squall line did not
have as much forward motion. This was leading to a convective band
increasingly oriented in a NW-SE fashion, roughly parallel to the
general storm motion. The change in the orientation of the storms
has increased the potential for training and a swath of rainfall
of several inches in a short period of time. The inflow region
over E OH was strongly unstable with MLCAPE around 3000 j/kg, and
GPS observations put the PW values at around 1.8 inches. While
these PW values are not as high as areas further to the northwest,
they were still sufficiently high to support rain rates to around
2 in/hr in the presence of strong instability. The expanding cold
pool to the east in NC PA should provide a focus for thunderstorms
during the evening, with low-level inflow likely to persist at a
nearly orthogonal angle to ongoing thunderstorms and the gust
front. Sustained, unstable inflow should maintain convection for
at least another couple hours before the boundary layer begins to
stabilize with a loss of sunlight. Until that occurs, locally
heavy swaths of rainfall are expected where training can occur,
and flash flooding will be possible. 3-hour FFG is below 2 inches
in some areas, and that would certainly be achievable in such an
environment.

Lamers

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...CTP...PBZ...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   41988002 41917912 41427778 40767764 40637857
            40857955 41288018 41808047


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