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AWUS01 KWNH 192233
FFGMPD
MIZ000-200245-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0633
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
632 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019

Areas affected...Eastern Lower Michigan

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 192231Z - 200245Z

Summary...Thunderstorms may backbuild and repeatedly affect some
areas in Eastern Lower Michigan into the evening hours. Rain rates
could reach 2 inches per hour in the strongest thunderstorms.
Flash flooding will be possible.

Discussion...Backbuilding thunderstorms have been occurring in an
extremely isolated fashion in the vicinity of DTW for about 3
hours. It's unclear how much longer this will persist as
thunderstorm outflow begins to push further away from active
updrafts (ARB was reporting an ENE wind at 22Z). However, the
large scale environment is supportive of backbuilding storms over
eastern Lower Michigan this evening. Low-level inflow at 850mb is
from the WSW and generally close in strength or slightly stronger
than the deep layer mean flow. This tends to favor new updraft
growth on the upshear flank and backbuilding, as does the relative
position of a strong instability maximum -- MLCAPE is analyzed by
the RAP to be nearly 5000 j/kg over the central Lower Peninsula of
Michigan. A new convective line has become better established in
the LAN-FNT corridor, and a trailing line of enhanced cumulus
extended further to the WSW to the southeast coast of Lake
Michigan. Therefore, the potential exists for continued
backbuilding into the strongly unstable air mass, particularly
along the low-level convergence axis implied by the cumulus
development.

An extremely moist air mass is present across the Lower Peninsula,
with numerous GPS observations in the 2.1 to 2.3 inch range. This
is above the 99th percentile for these areas. If the 00Z DTX
sounding were to sample a similar value, it would be among the
higher values observed at that location. The tremendous amount of
moisture available should lead to efficient rainfall production in
thunderstorms, and rain rates could exceed 2 inches per hour in an
environment with such deep moisture and strong instability. These
rain rates would support flash flooding even if training and
backbuilding were not configured exactly right. Therefore, flash
flooding will be possible this evening. This region has been
upgraded to a Slight Risk on the Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook.

Lamers

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...GRR...IWX...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   43398260 42358241 41848323 41958405 42078495
            42288520 42768480 43278362


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