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ACUS11 KWNS 192040
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192040
NYZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-192245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1527
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

Areas affected...Northeastern Ohio...northwestern
Pennsylvania...Portions of western/central New York

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 523...

Valid 192040Z - 192245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 523
continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for a few damaging wind gusts continues in WW 523.
Degree of threat contingent upon cold pool organization. Western
portions of WW 523 may see very little storm coverage.

DISCUSSION...Storms approaching from Ontario have generally weakened
after interacting with relatively stable air over Lake Erie/Ontario.
Ahead of this activity, scattered thunderstorms have developed from
a combination of lake breeze convergence as well as convective
temperature being breached. So far, this multicellular activity has
remained rather disorganized. As storms move farther south and east,
deep-layer shear will decline with only 20-25 kts being objectively
analyzed by mesoanalysis. DCAPE around 1000 J/kg will continue to
support a threat for a few damaging wind gusts until boundary layer
stabilization occurs early this evening. Enough storm coverage
exists that a cold pool may develop and mature, which would lead to
a locally enhanced wind gust threat.

Farther west, in northeastern Ohio, activity within southeastern
Lower Michigan has been slow to move to the southeast. It is
unlikely this activity will move into portions of northeastern Ohio
given the weak deep-layer and a weak lake breeze front in the region
decreases confidence in development along the Lake Erie shore. A
relative minimum in storm coverage is expected in western portions
of WW 523.

..Wendt.. 07/19/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON   41838307 42458069 43357663 43267542 42487509 41517650
            40857928 40908142 41098262 41418321 41588349 41838307



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