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ACUS11 KWNS 200212
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200211
MIZ000-WIZ000-200345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1534
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0911 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

Areas affected...portions of northern and central lower MI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 200211Z - 200345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Damaging wind threat is expected to continue downstream of
WW 525 into portions of lower MI. A new severe thunderstorm watch is
expected in the next hour or so.

DISCUSSION...An intense bow echo continues to rapidly shift
east/southeast across northern WI this evening. Latest track
information brings the bow across Lake Michigan around 04z. A very
unstable airmass remains downstream of the bow, with temperatures
still in the 80s and dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s across much
of northern and central lower MI this evening. A southwesterly low
level jet of 40-50 kt is being sampled by regional VWPs and
effective shear greater than 40 kts will continue to stream across
the upper Great Lakes region overnight. Furthermore, a well-defined
rear inflow jet is noted in KGRB 88-D data. An unconfirmed measured
80 mph wind gust along with numerous reports of damage have occurred
with the most intense portion of the bow, now moving across Oconto
and Marinette Counties in northeast WI. Given the favorable
environmental parameters and the organized nature of the ongoing
bow, expect the threat will continue downstream into portions of
lower MI and a severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed in
the next hour or so.

..Leitman/Thompson.. 07/20/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...GRB...

LAT...LON   45388557 45408643 45248706 44958719 44218739 43798701
            43478601 43348455 43438394 43928354 44428325 44918343
            45278446 45388557



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