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ACUS11 KWNS 192353
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192353
WIZ000-MNZ000-200130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1532
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0653 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

Areas affected...central MN into west-central WI

Concerning...Tornado Watch 524...

Valid 192353Z - 200130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 524 continues.

SUMMARY...The main severe threat across eastern portions of WW 524
will shift east into WW 525 over the next 1-2 hours.

DISCUSSION...A large, HP supercell over west-central WI continues a
transition into a bow echo early this evening. Latest radar velocity
trends from KDLH and KARX show increasing midlevel velocities
greater than 80 kts in the 8-12 kft layer. This is a good indicator
that downdrafts are increasing and a rear inflow jet may be
developing. KARX VWP is also showing the increasing low level jet
nicely, with 35-50 kt southwesterly winds in the 1-3 km layer. As
the bow becomes better organized, expect the southeasterly motion to
become more east/southeast as storms track into WW 525. Trends will
be monitored closely and WFO ARX could expand WW 525 southward if
needed.

Otherwise, the main threat will be shifting east of WW 524 over the
next hour or two. Some additional development is possible on the
western flanks of the main bowing segment across far east-central
MN, but forcing for ascent is weakening further west and somewhat
drier air will filter into the region on the back side of the
quasi-stationary boundary. Some threat for hail and gusty winds
could accompany storms further west into the evening, but the main
severe threat will remain confined to the southeastward propagating
bow.

..Leitman.. 07/19/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON   44559370 44269215 44049108 44079020 44369003 45849095
            46009170 45549343 45449363 45029448 44739467 44579471
            44559370



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