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ACUS11 KWNS 192310
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192309
MIZ000-200045-
Mesoscale Discussion 1531
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0609 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019
Areas affected...Southern Michigan
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 192309Z - 200045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A cluster of storms will continue through the evening with
a threat for isolated large hail and damaging winds.
DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms has developed in southern Michigan
in an area of extreme instability (4000 to 4500 MLCAPE). While shear
is mostly weak across this area (20 kts or less per area VWPs),
these storms will pose at least some severe threat given the
instability. In fact, evidence of the extreme buoyancy compensating
for the lack of shear can bee seen in the cell in eastern Livingston
county where mid-level rotation suggests a supercell has developed
within the cluster. This storm will likely pose the greatest severe
threat for the next hour or two as it dives southward toward the
better instability. The primary threat will be large hail and
damaging winds. The localized threat area will likely preclude the
need for a severe thunderstorm watch, but trends will be monitored
for a potential small watch if the threat extends beyond this one
storm or it appears the threat may persist beyond an hour or two.
..Bentley/Thompson.. 07/19/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...
LAT...LON 42438565 42848426 42868367 42718343 42398320 42168327
41908376 41808450 41868517 41978578 42168603 42438565
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