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ACUS11 KWNS 191757
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191757
MIZ000-OHZ000-192000-
Mesoscale Discussion 1525
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019
Areas affected...Southeastern Lower Michigan
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 191757Z - 192000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Rapid storm development appears underway in southeastern
Lower Michigan, per visible satellite imagery. Weak deep-layer shear
will limit storm organization. Damaging wind gusts are possible as
storms collapse. A WW is possible this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Strong destabilization has occurred in southeastern
Lower Michigan as temperatures have rising into the upper-80s F to
lower 90s F. With dewpoints holding in the upper-70s F, 3000-4000
J/kg of MLCAPE has developed across the area. A 7.6 C/km mid-level
lapse rate was sampled by the 12Z DTX sounding indicating potential
for rapidly developing storms. The limiting factor for this activity
will be the relatively week deep-layer shear (around 20-25 kts).
Nonetheless, strong to extreme buoyancy will support strong storms
capable of damaging wind gusts as they collapse. With scattered
storm coverage expected, a WW is possible this afternoon.
..Wendt/Guyer.. 07/19/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...
LAT...LON 42338534 42958399 43068304 42918258 42418230 41948230
41518297 41468368 41768456 42058514 42338534
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