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ACUS11 KWNS 191739
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191738
NYZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-191945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1524
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

Areas affected...Portions of northern
Pennsylvannia...western/central New York

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 191738Z - 191945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A WW will be possible this afternoon as storms move into
western NY/PA out of southern Ontario. Marginally organized storms
will be capable of damaging wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...Ongoing storms in southern portions of Ontario related
to an MCV have begun to organize into a linear complex over the past
hour. Updrafts have continued to deepen with an increase of 50 dBZ
areal extent noted on the MRMS 5 and 9 km CAPPI. The downstream
environment continues to destabilize with dewpoints broadly in the
mid/upper-70s F and temperatures rising into the 80s F. By
afternoon, temperatures rising into the upper 80s to low 90s F will
support 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Modest shear profiles (25-30 kts 0-6
km) will support marginal storm organization. The main threat with
this activity will be damaging wind gusts as objective mesoanalysis
depicts 1000-1300 J/kg DCAPE. Downdraft potential will likely
increase as low-level lapse rates steepen as surface heating
continues this afternoon. Weak low-level rotation may occur with
storms interacting with the lake breeze front. Overall tornado
potential will be low, however. A WW is possible later this
afternoon.

..Wendt/Guyer.. 07/19/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON   42128041 43117901 43427851 43447681 42737615 41537688
            41297892 41378017 41818053 42128041



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