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ACUS02 KWNS 191721
SWODY2
SPC AC 191720

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with wind damage and hail will be possible
on Saturday across parts of the Mid Missouri Valley
east-northeastward into the western Great Lakes. Other marginally
severe storms will be possible from southeast Wyoming into eastern
Colorado.

...Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley/Upper Mississippi Valley/Great
Lakes...
Mid-level flow will become westerly across the north-central states
on Saturday as the exit region of a mid-level jet moves eastward
across the region. At the surface, a cold front will advance
southward across the central Plains, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes.
A moist airmass will be in place along and south of the front with
surface dewpoints in the 70s F. In response to surface heating,
moderate to strong instability is expected to develop across much of
the moist sector by afternoon. Elevated thunderstorms are forecast
to form to the north of the front across parts of the upper
Mississippi Valley around midday in response to the exit region of
the mid-level jet. Surface-based thunderstorms may develop further
east and south along the front from eastern Iowa into southern
Wisconsin and Lower Michigan during the mid afternoon and persist
into the early evening. Forecast soundings along this corridor
around 21Z on Saturday show strong instability along and south of
the front with very steep low-level lapse rates and moderate
deep-layer shear. This should be favorable for wind damage
especially if a cold pool can be generated. Due to the very unstable
environment, a slight risk area has been introduced from eastern
Iowa to Lower Michigan where the models are in the best agreement
concerning convective potential.

...Northern and Eastern Colorado/Southeast Wyoming...
West southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much of
the Rockies on Saturday. A subtle shortwave trough is forecast to
move eastward across the central and northern Rockies. At the
surface, a cold front will advance southward across the central
Plains. Surface dewpoints behind the front in northeastern Colorado
should be in the upper 50s to mid 60s F. This will likely result in
a pocket of moderate instability by afternoon. Convection appears
most likely to develop along the front range and spread
east-southeastward into the Colorado High Plains. Although
deep-layer shear will be weak, steep lapse rates may be enough for
marginally severe wind gusts with the stronger multicells.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:   2%     - Marginal
Wind:     15%     - Slight
Hail:      5%     - Marginal

..Broyles.. 07/19/2019

$$


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