This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1563552410-2024-1417
Content-Type: text/plain

ACUS11 KWNS 191606
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191606
MNZ000-SDZ000-191800-

Mesoscale Discussion 1523
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1106 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

Areas affected...west-central Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 191606Z - 191800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Trends around a dying MCS are being monitored for eventual
supercell development later today.

DISCUSSION...A small but impressive MCS has finally died over
northeast SD into west-central MN, and is now producing northerly
outflow winds. Soundings indicate this complex was being sustained
by elevated parcels as the boundary layer remains capped this
morning.

Given decreasing near-term trends, the large cirrus canopy is
expected to thin on the southern fringe which will aid insolation.
In addition, the outflow should modify as well. This residual
outflow may serve as the storm initiation zone later this afternoon
as the air mass becomes very unstable upstream, and southwest winds
create lift. A lone cell currently exits along the SD/MN border in
the wake of the MCS. This general zone, and extending east along a
modifying outflow boundary, will be the primary area of concern
through early afternoon.

In the near term, the outflow boundary will be monitored as the air
mass continues to heat and destabilize. Any signs of surface-based
development would likely require a watch for a tornado and wind
threat.

..Jewell/Guyer.. 07/19/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...

LAT...LON   45879465 45839425 45759409 45589404 45369408 45189424
            44999464 44879528 44799615 44709695 44789718 44979726
            45219721 45559684 45699631 45789555 45879465



------------=_1563552410-2024-1417
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
------------=_1563552410-2024-1417--

--- SBBSecho 3.07-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)