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ACUS11 KWNS 191209
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191208
SDZ000-191415-

Mesoscale Discussion 1522
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0708 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

Areas affected...Portions of north-central into northeastern SD

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 191208Z - 191415Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated damaging wind and hail threat may continue
into northeastern South Dakota this morning. Watch issuance remains
unlikely.

DISCUSSION...A long-lived supercell that initiated in southeastern
MT earlier this morning has recently merged into a small bowing
cluster with other storms across north-central SD. At 12Z, strong
inbound velocities around 5000-7000 ft AGL have been observed from
the KABR radar with this convection, and a few measured wind gusts
to 59-64 mph have occurred over the past couple of hours across
north-central SD. With 50+ kt of effective bulk shear present over
this region, a isolated strong to damaging wind threat may continue
through mid morning as this activity spreads eastward across
northeastern SD. It remains unclear when/if this cluster will
weaken, but most short-term guidance suggests gradual weakening
should occur no later than 14-16Z as it encounters greater
convective inhibition observed on the 12Z sounding from Aberdeen SD.
Marginally severe hail is also possible in the short term. This
wind/hail threat should remain quite isolated through the morning,
and watch issuance remains unlikely.

..Gleason/Grams.. 07/19/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...

LAT...LON   45079999 45639999 45889925 45889700 45619691 44689688
            44659788 44709914 45079999



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