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FOUS30 KWBC 190822
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
422 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019

Day 1
Valid 12Z Fri Jul 19 2019 - 12Z Sat Jul 20 2019

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...Northern Plains...Upper Mississippi Valley into the Great
Lakes...
There were only some relatively minor changes made to the previous
elongated marginal and slight risk areas stretching from portions
of the Northern Plains...Upper Mississippi Valley and into the
Great Lakes.  The surface frontal boundary is expected to become
oriented in a west southwest to east northeasterly direction
across these regions this period and remain a focus for additional
convective development Friday afternoon into Friday night and the
early hours of Saturday.  Hi res model consensus is for an initial
organized area of convection to form along and just north of the
west to east oriented front in the vicinity of central MN late
Friday afternoon...ahead of a surface wave moving along the
front...and push downstream across northern to central WI...the
U.P. and northern L.P. of MI.  The slight risk area was drawn from
east central MN into north central WI in the model qpf consensus
maxima.  While the models are focusing on the most organized
convection ahead of the above mentioned surface wave moving along
the boundary...additional convection is possible into the early
hours of Saturday westward along and to the north of the frontal
boundary across large portions of SD into southern MN.  Model
consensus is not as good with respect to the location of heavy
rains here ...but with moist inflow expected to persist into the
west to east boundary...the potential will continue for heavy
rains along and north of the front.  At the moment...only a
marginal risk is depicted given uncertainties at this time range
in locations of the max precip.

Oravec




Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.t...
Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.t...
Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.t...


$$




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