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AWUS01 KWNH 190809
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-191315-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0631
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
408 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019

Areas affected...Southeast MN, Northeast IA, Southern WI, Northern
IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 190800Z - 191315Z

Summary...Thunderstorms developing along a warm front will produce
periods of torrential rain through early morning. Rainfall rates
of 1-2"/hr within storms that will backbuild across the same areas
may crate more than 3" of rain in some locations. This may produce
flash flooding.

Discussion...Convectively enhanced MCV is evident in radar within
a larger MCS noted by cooling cloud tops on GOES-16 IR imagery
across southern/central Wisconsin. Beneath this feature, a warm
front is lifting slowly northeastward towards Lake Michigan, while
a potent jet streak across southern Canada places the area beneath
a region of anticyclonic shear. These features together in a moist
and thermodynamically favorable environment will persist a flash
flood threat through the morning.

High-res guidance is not initializing very well the current
situation, but observations in satellite and ingredients based
methodology suggests upscale growth of convection is likely to
increase. Weak anticyclonic cirrus outflow circling repeatedly
cooling cloud top signatures is indicative of a strengthening MCS.
Recent reflectivity from KARX WSR-88D indicates an outflow
boundary draped NW to SE just west of the strongest convection,
along which new cellular development is occurring. This
regeneration is due to isentropic lift of the 25-35kt SW oriented
850mb LLJ atop this feature in an environment characterized by
MUCape of more than 3000 J/kg. As the cluster begins to drop E/SE
over the next few hours along both the 850-300mb thickness and
MUCape gradient, this outflow will become aligned with the mean
flow, and at a sharp angle to the layer Corfidi vectors suggesting
backbuilding of cells which may then train to the southeast. This
is a favorable setup for an MCS, and even though there is a lack
of consensus among the CAMs, recent radar estimates of 1-2"/hr
rain rates should persist even as the MCS dives to the southeast.

HREF neighborhood probabilities for 1"/hr rain rates remain above
40% for the next several hours, and local FFG is as low as 1"/hr
across portions of WI and southeast MN. Despite what may become
rapid motion to the southeast of the leading edge of this MCS,
persistent backbuilding and regeneration along outflows to the
west should allow for increased temporal duration of heavy
rainfall, potentially in several rounds, which may be enough to
overcome the FFG and lead to runoff and localized flash flooding.

Weiss

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   44359205 44339154 44279109 44179068 43958983
            43478832 43188807 42868801 42678804 42508827
            42338863 42398954 42499008 42619079 42869155
            43139210 43459249 43949263 44179244


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