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ACUS03 KWNS 190726
SWODY3
SPC AC 190725

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the lower Missouri
Valley eastward into the southern Great Lakes.  Damaging gusts are
the primary hazard.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move from the northern Great
Plains to the Great Lakes on Sunday while a cold front pushes south
across the middle MS Valley and southern Great Lakes.  A mid-level
ridge will amplify over the Rockies.

...Southern Great Lakes into the lower MO Valley...
A moisture-rich boundary layer will reside south of the
aforementioned front forecast to move through much of the area
during the period.  A cluster or two of thunderstorms may be ongoing
Sunday morning from the central Great Plains into the southern Great
Lakes.  Scattered storms will likely develop during the day on the
front and/or composite outflow from early day storms over parts of
IL/IN/Lower MI/OH by early afternoon.  With stronger mid- to
high-level flow being displaced to the north of the boundary, 0-6km
shear generally below 30kt will favor multicells.  Slightly greater
coverage of damaging gusts may exist across northern IN into Lower
MI where stronger 700-500mb flow is depicted in some of the model
guidance, but due to uncertainty at this time, will refrain from
higher probabilities.  Some of the stronger storms will be capable
primarily of a risk for damaging winds and perhaps marginal hail.
Farther west over eastern KS/western MO, there is more uncertainty
for severe due in part to possible isolated storm development near
the front overnight Saturday night into Sunday morning.  However,
the development of 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE near the front by late
afternoon may aid in the development of a couple of strong to severe
storms.

..Smith.. 07/19/2019

$$


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