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ACUS11 KWNS 190627
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190626
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-190900-

Mesoscale Discussion 1521
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

Areas affected...Portions of far southeastern MT...far northeastern
WY...far southwestern ND...and northwestern SD

Concerning...01Z Outlook upgrade

Valid 190626Z - 190900Z

SUMMARY...Isolated severe risk should continue overnight. Large hail
appears to be the main threat. Overall threat will probably remain
too isolated for a watch.

DISCUSSION...Storms have recently strengthened across far
southeastern MT into far southwestern ND along and just ahead of a
cold front. Ascent overspreading this region associated with a
subtle shortwave trough embedded within enhanced mid/upper-level
westerly flow may also be aiding storm development. This convection
will likely remain elevated above a shallow near-surface stable
layer. But, steep mid-level lapse rates are contributing to
1500-2500+ MUCAPE, which increases with eastward extent across
western SD. Strong mid/upper-level winds will support elevated
supercells early this morning with mainly a large hail threat given
the 50-60 kt of effective bulk shear. This threat for isolated large
hail will probably persist for the next couple of hours into parts
of far southwestern ND and northwestern SD. At least a marginal risk
of severe storms is apparent, but the overall threat will probably
remain too isolated to justify watch issuance.

..Gleason/Grams.. 07/19/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...

LAT...LON   45130531 45660492 46260364 46370291 46330179 45930090
            45010089 44470157 44170262 44180404 44510499 45130531



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