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ACUS01 KWNS 190555
SWODY1
SPC AC 190554

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
MN...CENTRAL/NORTHERN MI...AND WESTERN UPPER MI...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of all severe threats, including large hail,
strong wind gusts, and tornadoes, are possible across portions of
the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes today.

...Upper Midwest...Upper Great Lakes...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the
beginning of the period over portions of the Upper Great Lakes,
supported by a modest low-level jet. These showers and thunderstorms
are expected to dissipate by the early morning as the low-level jet
weakens.

A very moist air mass is currently in place over the Upper
Midwest/Upper Great Lakes, with even better moisture upstream across
the Middle MS Valley. This air mass will remain over the region
today with some modest moist advection possible. As a result,
dewpoints are expected to be mid to upper 70s across a large portion
of the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes. Dewpoints around 80 may
be realized across southern MN near a weak surface low. Surface
temperatures are also expected to climb into the 90s as the boundary
layer mixes. These very warm and moist conditions will exist beneath
relatively cool mid-level temperatures, resulting in very steep
(i.e. 8-8.5 deg C per km) mid-level lapse rates. As a result, an
extremely buoyant thermodynamic environment (i.e. 4000+ J/kg of
MLCAPE) will be in place. Highest buoyancy will likely occur across
northern IA, southern MN, and west-central WI. In these areas MLCAPE
could exceed 6000 J/kg this afternoon and evening.

In addition to this extreme buoyancy, seasonally strong westerly
flow aloft will extend from the northern High Plains through Upper
MI. Generally southerly low-level flow beneath these westerlies
results in effective bulk shear values of 45-55 kt across much of MN
and northern WI today afternoon and evening.

Overall, the resulting environment is very favorable for severe
thunderstorms. Large-scale forcing for ascent will be negligible but
convergence near a weak surface low expected to centered be near the
southern SD/MN border this afternoon, and a warm front extending
east from the low, will provide the impetus for convective
initiation. Once initiation occurs, strong updrafts are expected to
develop rapidly, with an attendant threat for all severe hazards
including very large hail and tornadoes. Generation of strong cold
pools are expected to result in quick upscale growth into a
convective line. Strength of the vertical shear suggests the
potential for a well-organized and intense convective line capable
of significant wind gusts exists. Higher wind probabilities may be
needed in subsequent forecasts if confidence in the development and
location of a well-organized convective line increases.

...Lower Great Lakes...Northeast...
Weak convectively induced shortwave trough is expected to progress
over the Lower Great Lakes this afternoon, providing enough lift for
thunderstorm development. Air mass over the region will be
moderately unstable but weakly sheared. Expectation is for
predominantly multicellular, outflow-dominant storms capable of
isolated damaging wind gusts.

...SD...
A strong low-level jet will develop across the Plains tonight with
the resulting warm-air advection supporting thunderstorm development
across SD. These initially elevated storms could produce isolated
large hail. As they move eastward, low-probability potential exists
for a few downdrafts intense enough to produce strong wind gusts at
the surface.

..Mosier/Bentley.. 07/19/2019

$$


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