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ACUS02 KWNS 190535
SWODY2
SPC AC 190534

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES INTO NEBRASKA AND IN PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated severe risk will exist from Nebraska eastward into the
central Great Lakes and over parts of eastern Colorado.  Damaging
gusts and large hail are the primary threats.

...Central Great Lakes into the central High Plains...
A belt of strong westerlies will be confined to the states bordering
Canada on Saturday with a flattened mid-level ridge over the OH
Valley.  A cold front initially over the Upper Midwest extending
west-southwestward into the central High Plains will move southward,
with the front accelerating south through most of eastern CO and
into western KS by early evening.  A reservoir of rich boundary
layer moisture over the Midwest (characterized by 70s degrees F
surface dewpoints) will contribute to a very unstable airmass from
the MO River east through the middle MS Valley.  Model guidance
varies on the placement of storms over the Upper Midwest early
Saturday morning.  Nonetheless, it seems some of the early day
activity may continue into parts of the central Great Lakes with
other development occurring during the afternoon in the vicinity of
the front farther west in IA.  Isolated damaging gusts/hail are the
primary risks with the stronger storms.  Farther west over the
central High Plains, increasing low-level moisture will accompany a
post-frontal upslope regime.  Strong heating coupled with
orographically forced ascent will promote storms developing near the
terrain-favored locales before spreading east into the plains.  This
activity will likely weaken by early-mid evening.

...Mid-Atlantic states into much of the Southeast...
A mid-level ridge extending across the southern tier of states will
favor isolated to scattered diurnally driven storms.  Ample heating
leading to steepened low-level lapse rates and a weak shear
environment will promote pulse thunderstorms.  A few of the stronger
cores may yield localized gusty winds and perhaps small hail.  This
activity will weaken by the early evening.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:  <2%     - None
Wind:      5%     - Marginal
Hail:      5%     - Marginal

..Smith.. 07/19/2019

$$


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