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ACUS11 KWNS 182155
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182154
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-182300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1518
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0454 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019

Areas affected...southeast South Dakota through southern Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 182154Z - 182300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop primarily from
southeast South Dakota into southern Minnesota this evening. Large
hail, damaging wind and a couple of tornadoes will be possible.

DISCUSSION...Early this evening, cumulus continues to deepen in
vicinity of a quasi-stationary or warm front from southeast SD into
southern MN. Warm air (12C) at the base of an elevated mixed layer
has so far served to cap the atmosphere to deeper surface based
convection. Along and south of this boundary, temperatures have
warmed to around 90 F with dewpoints in the 70s F along with steep
lapse rates supporting 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE. Deeper forcing for ascent
is relatively weak, but shallow convergence is present along the
boundary. Some increase in forcing may occur during the evening
along the front as a southwesterly low-level jet strengthens in the
warm sector. This region remains on southern fringe of stronger
winds aloft with 40+ kt effective bulk shear supportive of
supercells capable of large hail once storms develop. While 0-2 km
hodographs are rather small due to weak low-level winds, a couple of
tornadoes cannot be ruled out as storms interact with the stationary
front.

..Dial/Thompson.. 07/18/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON   43479413 43339648 43689751 44679689 44639477 44689288
            44089236 43479413



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