This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1563486466-2024-1095
Content-Type: text/plain

AWUS01 KWNH 182147
FFGMPD
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-190100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0629
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
546 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019

Areas affected...Central NJ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 182145Z - 190100Z

Summary...The threat of flash flooding will continue for a few
more hours with remaining instability and tropical moisture in
place. Hourly totals up to 1.5" will be possible.

Discussion...An area of low pressure now centered over
south-central NJ has focused showers and thunderstorms mainly to
portions of New Jersey in the last hour or so. This is where the
remaining pockets of higher instability exist per the most recent
RAP mesoanalysis (2500-3000 J/kg). Additionally, the deepest
tropical moisture is slowly being shunted offshore but an axis of
2.0 to 2.4" PWs remains along the far coastal areas.

Through early evening before instability wanes and the low
pressure moves offshore there will continue to be a flash flood
threat. Radar estimates from around the area suggest hourly totals
up to 1.5" remain possible and a few mesonet observations confirms
this matches up fairly well. The latest hi-res guidance points to
an additional 1-2" with some localized 3" amounts possible through
about 02Z, at which convection should be mostly offshore or
dissipated with the waning instability.

Given some of the area still has low FFGs, flash flooding will be
possible.

Taylor

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...

LAT...LON   40957441 40817430 40497415 40337409 40117395
            39947400 39667428 39477452 39337477 39287494
            39247501 39217562 39867548 39997527 40417498
            40827482


------------=_1563486466-2024-1095
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
------------=_1563486466-2024-1095--

--- SBBSecho 3.07-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)