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ACUS11 KWNS 182020
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182019
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-182215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1517
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0319 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019

Areas affected...portions of the Carolinas and vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 182019Z - 182215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are developing across much of the Southeast.
Strong outflow winds are possible with these storms across a
corridor across the Carolinas. A watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...A hot, moist airmass across the Southeast has resulted
in thunderstorm development this afternoon. With weak flow/shear,
multicellular, outflow dominant convection has developed with
damaging wind gusts possible with a few of these storms as low-level
lapse rates have steepened. While an organized severe risk is
unlikely, a corridor of overlapping MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg and
DCAPE of 1200+ J/kg exists from central North Carolina into eastern
Georgia. This appears to have the greatest potential for strong
outflow winds through the afternoon into the early evening hours.
Given the marginal, isolated severe wind threat, a watch issuance is
not expected.

..Nauslar/Guyer.. 07/18/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...

LAT...LON   32928070 32818175 33028224 33328262 33908273 34738215
            35638033 35977961 36217903 35947846 35087867 34377916
            32928070



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