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AWUS01 KWNH 190028
FFGMPD
WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-190500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0630
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
827 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019

Areas affected...Southeast Minnesota and Southwest Wisconsin

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 190026Z - 190500Z

Summary...Thunderstorms forming over southern Minnesota will be
capable of producing intense rainfall that leads to problems from
ponding of water or flash flooding this evening.

Discussion...Thunderstorms were forming over southern Minnesota
along and immediately north of a warm front draped along the
border with Iowa.  Deep moisture was already in place with surface
dewpoints at or just above 80 degrees in a few spots.  Those
reading were surrounded by dewpoints in the mid 70s from the
southeast corner of South Dakota into western Wisconsin.  The 23Z
RAP forecast indicated Precipitable Water values locally in excess
of 2 inches immediately along the front, and that there was a
tight gradient in Precipitable Water values from north to south
across southern Minnesota.  Low level winds from the south will
continue to advect deeper moisture up and over the frontal
boundary throughout the evening.

The NAM-Conest and ARW core of the HRW both showed potential for 1
hour rainfall rates of 1 to 1.5 inches and the HREF probabilities
were similar.  Concern is that the convection has formed along an
east to west axis along the front, and cell motion was also
largely from west to east...setting up the potential for training
of intense rainfall producing cells.

The NAM-Conest and ARW core both indicated that convection should
become increasingly widespread during the evening especially over
far southeast Minnesota into southwest Wisconsin.  Satellite
imagery showing a shortwave approaching the area from the west
supports the idea that additional showers and thunderstorms will
develop later this evening.

Bann

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...FSD...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   44729111 43959043 43199057 43469381 43439534
            43939524 44199423 44489254


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