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ACUS11 KWNS 190022
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190021
WIZ000-MNZ000-190145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1519
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0721 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019

Areas affected...southern MN...northern IA through western WI

Concerning...Tornado Watch 522...

Valid 190021Z - 190145Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 522 continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for large hail, damaging wind and a couple of
tornadoes will persist mainly over southern MN next couple hours.
Additional storm development is possible east of WW 522 into western
WI, but another WW issuance will ultimately depend on convective
trends.

DISCUSSION...Storms that developed along a stationary boundary
persist across southern MN. Some supercell structures continue to be
observed including a right mover and several left splits, and this
is consistent with the long hodographs with strong unidirectional
shear. Some of the storms are propagating northward along an outflow
boundary and will move north of the current WW. A local extension in
area for another row or two of counties might be needed across
southern MN.

Elsewhere a band of cumulus continues to be observed into western WI
along the eastern extension of the boundary where additional storms
might develop in a similar environment as farther west, though
confidence is not particularly high. Despite onset of nocturnal
cooling, an increase in forcing for ascent along nose of
strengthening low-level jet might provide sufficient forcing for
additional storms to develop farther east with time.

..Dial.. 07/19/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON   43879090 43829249 44019279 44549253 44619102 43879090



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