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ACUS11 KWNS 181749
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181749
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-182015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1516
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019

Areas affected...portions of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 181749Z - 182015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are expected to intensify this afternoon across
portions of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast. Damaging winds are
possible, but a watch issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...A hot, moist airmass is in place across the
Mid-Atlantic with surface temperatures in the upper 80s to 90s F and
dewpoints of 70+ F south/east of a surface front. Strong insolation
has helped focus convective initiation along/near a surface trough,
terrain, and the surface front across the region. Shallow convection
began late this morning, but cooler cloud tops and higher dBZ values
at 7 km CAPPI have been observed in the last 30-60 minutes. Storms
should continue to develop/strengthen this afternoon into the
evening as they move east-northeast across the region. With
steepening low-level lapse rates and very moist vertical profiles,
water-loaded downdrafts could result in damaging winds.
Multicellular, outflow-dominant storms are likely with the weak flow
aloft and unstable airmass. However, a small cluster or two could
become organized and locally enhance the severe wind threat. Given
the marginal, isolated severe threat, a watch issuance is unlikely.

..Nauslar/Guyer.. 07/18/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON   38437496 37737609 37507741 37617946 37987956 38677886
            39397814 40157719 40737616 41037503 41057381 40897356
            40417363 40137372 39807389 39237425 38437496



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