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ACUS11 KWNS 181728
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181728
MIZ000-WIZ000-182000-
Mesoscale Discussion 1515
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019
Areas affected...northern Wisconsin into Upper Michigan
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 181728Z - 182000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...At least isolated storms capable of large hail are
expected this afternoon. However, coverage of severe may not warrant
a watch.
DISCUSSION...Storms have recently initiated over far northwest
Wisconsin, in a zone of warm advection immediately behind a weak
wave now moving across Upper Michigan and Lake Superior. This area
should continue to favor scattered development despite cooler
boundary layer temperatures as west/southwesterly 850 mb winds of
20-30 kt persist. In addition, 700 mb temperatures remain relatively
cool across the zone, and objective analysis indicates capping will
remain minimal in this east-west zone. Lengthy hodographs will favor
cells capable of hail, and a supercell or two may occur with
effective SRH of 150-200 m2/s2.
..Jewell/Guyer.. 07/18/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...
LAT...LON 45819039 46009127 46199149 46399151 46589125 46749068
47108920 47408840 47438796 47258760 47048703 46728658
46348659 46018695 45788754 45718876 45819039
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