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ACUS02 KWNS 181727
SWODY2
SPC AC 181726

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible in far eastern Minnesota, northern Wisconsin and western
Upper Michigan on Friday. A few storms with strong wind gusts may
develop across the Upper Midwest to parts of the northeastern
States.

...Upper Mississippi Valley/Western Great Lakes...
West-southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across the
north-central U.S. on Friday as a 70 to 90 kt mid-level jet moves
across the northern Plains and southern Ontario. At the surface, a
cold front is forecast to advance southward across the northern
Plains and upper Mississippi Valley with a moist airmass in place
south of the front. Surface dewpoints in the lower 70s F will likely
contribute to moderate to strong instability across much of the
moist sector by afternoon. Convection may initiate along the front
in central Minnesota during the late afternoon with a possibility
for scattered thunderstorms in northern Wisconsin during the early
to mid evening. Forecast soundings for 00Z/Saturday along this part
of the front show 0-6 km shear values in the 60 to 70 kt range
suggesting deep-layer shear will be favorable for organized
thunderstorms. The main uncertainty involves the warm air aloft and
how long it will take for initiation to occur. At this point, it
appears that a combination of lift associated with the low-level jet
and increasing low-level convergence along the front will be enough
for scattered thunderstorm development. This along with moderate
instability and strong deep-layer shear should be enough for a
severe threat during the early evening. Damaging wind gusts would be
the main threat but hail will also be possible with the stronger
updrafts. For this reason, will add a small slight from near
Minneapolis eastward across parts of northern Wisconsin where the
models are in best agreement concerning thunderstorm development.

...Lower Great Lakes/Northeast...
West-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place from the Great
Lakes into the Northeast on Friday. At the surface, a moist airmass
should be located from Lower Michigan eastward into Pennsylvania,
New York and northern New England. Surface dewpoints in the upper
60s and lower 70s F will likely contribute to moderate instability
across much of the region by afternoon.  Although large-scale ascent
will probably be limited, isolated thunderstorm development will be
possible along zones of increased low-level convergence during the
late afternoon as surface temperatures peak. Veered winds at
low-levels along with moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level
lapse rates should be favorable for a few marginally severe wind
gusts.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:   2%     - Marginal
Wind:     15%     - Slight
Hail:      5%     - Marginal

..Broyles.. 07/18/2019

$$


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