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AWUS01 KWNH 181555
FFGMPD
CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-182154-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0628
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1154 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019

Areas affected...Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 181554Z - 182154Z

Summary...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and
intensity this afternoon across the Mid-Atlantic region. With a
tropical air mass still in place, localized hourly totals 1-2" are
likely and this may lead to flash flooding.

Discussion...This morning's analysis showed an area of low
pressure over eastern PA with a stationary boundary draped
northeastward through southern New England. Visible satellite
showed building cumulus already across eastern PA, central NJ and
portions of MD, ahead of a remnant MCV noted northeast of DC. The
12Z soundings revealed the tropical air mass is still in place
with the IAD sounding showing tall/skinny CAPE and deep saturation
(2.11" PW) and the OKX sounding showing similar with 2.44" PW.

Mesoanalysis as of 15Z showed the best instability pool to be
across PA/NJ/MD into far southern NY and extreme southwest CT
where SBCAPE values of 2500-3000 J/kg exists. The blended TPW
product showed 2.2-2.4" across much of the outlook area.

The expectation through 21Z is that with daytime heating and the
increased boundary layer convergence, scattered to numerous
thunderstorms will develop. The environment will support efficient
rain producers (warm cloud depths 4-4.5 km). The latest hi-res
model consensus supports hourly totals of 1-2" at times, with the
latest HREF probablities of 1" being very high (90+ percent)
across eastern PA and much of NJ. Probablities of exceeding 2" in
1-hr are moderate at 40-50 percent and there is even a small
signal for 3"/hr totals (10-20) percent by mid-afternoon.

In the last 24 hours, 1-3" fell across the outlook area and as
such, the latest flash flood guidance is considerably low. 1-hour
values have been reduced to 0.5-1.0" in places and 3-hour values
of 1.0-2.0".

In general, 1-3" can be expected through this afternoon with
localized 4" totals possible. Given the lower FFG and
urban/sensitive areas combined with the tropical air mass, some
flash flooding will be possible.

Taylor+

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...CTP...LWX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NERFC...

LAT...LON   41437212 41287205 40987225 40897273 40787304
            40647333 40617367 40437406 40127412 39887418
            39667438 39387463 39207515 39277573 39147623
            39257665 39487703 40097665 40437663 40547641
            41087586 41227548 41297508 41307443 41357358



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