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AWUS01 KWNH 181351
FFGMPD
INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-181745-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0627
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
951 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019

Areas affected...eastern IA, southern WI, northern IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 181348Z - 181745Z

Summary...A threat for flash flooding will continue across
portions of eastern IA into southern WI and northern IL for
another couple of hours. Maximum additional rainfall of 2-3 inches
is expected by 18Z across the region.

Discussion...Regional radar imagery through 1320Z showed a
relatively disorganized complex of convection extending from the
western shores of Lake Michigan into central IA. An outflow
boundary/effective frontal boundary extended from just south of
ORD, west-southwestward into southeastern IA and then
west-northwestward into west-central IA. GOES 16 infrared imagery
continued to show cooling cloud tops across the IA/WI border with
the 12Z RAOBS from MPX and DVN indicating sufficient instability
is in place with MUCAPE ranging between ~1000-3000 J/kg. VAD wind
plots at 850 mb showed west to west-southwesterly winds remained
at DVN between 40-45 kt which is in excess of mean storm motions
which averaged 30-35 kt of a similar direction.

While not widespread by any means, another 2-3 hours of flash
flood potential will remain with repeating convection across
eastern IA into southern WI/northern IL until wind speeds at 850
mb weaken to 25 kt or less as forecast by recent runs of the RAP
with the passage of a mid-upper level shortwave aloft. A 70-80 kt
250 mb speed max, sampled by the 12Z MPX RAOB, will also act to
enhance lift within its right entrance region, before it shifts
off toward the northeast as the mid-upper level shortwave advances
eastward late this morning.

Otto

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...ILX...LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   43359090 43348755 42608679 41488704 41078872
            41159108 41859237 42779255


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