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ACUS03 KWNS 180633
SWODY3
SPC AC 180632

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0132 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MID MS VALLEY TO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Some severe threat will exist with storms that form over the Mid
Mississippi Valley into the upper Great Lakes.

...Discussion...

Upper ridge is forecast to flatten significantly across the northern
US during the day3 period as the southern extent of a positive
tilted short-wave trough shifts into ON. As deep-layer flow becomes
more northerly, surface front should advance to a position from
WI-IA-KS by late afternoon. This boundary is expected to serve as
the focus for potential robust convection. Large-scale pattern
continues to favor a substantial EML across the central Plains that
should extend into the upper Great Lakes. This plume should suppress
deep convection across the warm sector and limit convective
development to a post-frontal regime. Late-evening guidance suggests
a significant corridor of convection will develop north of the
boundary from the central Plains into northern lower MI. While this
activity should be elevated in nature, there appears to be some risk
for gusty winds and perhaps some hail.

..Darrow.. 07/18/2019

$$


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