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ACUS02 KWNS 180558
SWODY2
SPC AC 180557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN STATES...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms may develop across the upper Midwest to portions
of the northeastern States.

...Discussion...

Large-scale height rises are forecast across the upper Midwest into
New England during the day2 period as short-wave ridging builds
across southern ON/QC. Latest model guidance continues to suggest
seasonally strong mid-level flow will translate across the northern
High Plains into northwestern ON ahead of a positive-tilted trough
that will shift east along the international border during the
latter half of the period. This flow regime will likely result in
significant capping across the warm sector as EML plume is
transported off the higher terrain. 700mb temperatures >16C are
forecast to extend off the CO Rockies into southeast MN which
results in short-term model guidance allowing surface dew points to
rise to unusually high levels. This results in extreme CAPE ahead of
a front that should sag to a position from central MN-southeast
SD-NE Panhandle by late afternoon. NAM forecast sounding for FSD at
20/00z exhibits MUCAPE in excess of 9000 J/kg with a 23g/kg mixing
ratio. Even so, this air mass is capped with a temperature of 93F.
If storms form across this region they will likely do so north of
the boundary where frontal ascent will be maximized. Have expanded
5% severe probs across the Great Lakes into southeast SD to account
for this post-frontal initiation. Any storms that form will
propagate southeast during the overnight hours.

Downstream, convection may be ongoing across parts of southern ON
early in the period along nose of a LLJ. If this activity can
organize there is some reason to believe it could spread southeast
into portions of the upper OH Valley region. Locally damaging winds
will be the primary threat with this activity.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:   2%     - Marginal
Wind:      5%     - Marginal
Hail:      5%     - Marginal

..Darrow.. 07/18/2019

$$


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