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ACUS11 KWNS 180407
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180406
SDZ000-180500-

Mesoscale Discussion 1514
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1106 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

Areas affected...central SD

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 521...

Valid 180406Z - 180500Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 521
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind remains possible as storms move
through central SD next hour or two, but a longer term severe threat
and need for a downstream WW remains uncertain at this time.

DISCUSSION...Small cluster of storms over central SD is moving east
of WW 521. The atmosphere downstream is strongly unstable (2000-3000
J/kg MLCAPE). However, temperatures have fallen into the low 70s F,
and convective inhibition has undergone a substantial increase.
Nevertheless, storms have consolidated a cold pool and an MCV
circulation is evident based on radar data. These mesoscale forcing
mechanisms might be sufficient to sustain the storms another couple
hours, but a longer-term severe threat remains uncertain given the
increasingly hostile thermodynamic environment.

..Dial.. 07/18/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...

LAT...LON   44780020 45310030 45629938 45199888 44659887 44069957
            44220026 44780020



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