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ACUS01 KWNS 180057
SWODY1
SPC AC 180056

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

Valid 180100Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND DELMARVA
PENINSULA INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and large hail
remain possible across western portions of the northern Plains and
mid-to-upper Mississippi Valley through tonight. Storms capable of
damaging wind gusts also remain possible from the Delmarva Peninsula
into southern New England.

...01Z Update...

...Upper Midwest...
Threat for a tornado or two continues across Tornado Watch 519 in
far northern MN. Air mass downstream of the ongoing storms is
characterized southeast surface winds, dewpoints around 70, and
MLCAPE near 1500-2000 J/kg and the expectation for the ongoing
storms to persist for the next few hours.

Additional thunderstorms are still anticipated later this evening as
the warm-air advection increases as the low-level jet strengthens.
Overall environment supports the potential for some large hail
within the strongest storms.

...Northern Plains...
Thunderstorms have remained predominantly discrete thus far and this
discrete mode favors large hail as the primary severe threat. Hail
is expected to remain the primary threat for the next hour or two,
with strong wind gusts and a tornado or two also possible. Some
potential for upscale growth/linear transition exists across
southwest SD where storm coverage is higher.

...Mid MS Valley...
Decaying MCS continues to push across the middle MS Valley. Strong
wind gusts (i.e. 30-40 kt) were reported in the St. Louis vicinity
as this line move through. Some isolated damaging wind potential
remains along the leading edge (across southern IL and far southeast
MO) as the outflow continues progressing quickly eastward. Stronger
storms across central MO have also shown a strengthening trend over
the past half hour. Some increased forward propagation has also been
observed and a localized damaging wind threat exists downstream of
these storms as well. Even with the ongoing storms, overall severe
coverage across this region is expected to be below 15% percent.

...Delmarva Peninsula...NJ..Long Island...Coastal CT...
Portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watches 516 and 518 remain in effect
until 02Z and 04Z, respectively. Isolated damaging wind gusts remain
possible ahead of the line of storms moving across NJ and Long
Island and ahead of the isolated storms across the central Delmarva
Peninsula.

..Mosier.. 07/18/2019

$$


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