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ACUS11 KWNS 180046
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180046
SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-180245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1512
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

Areas affected...northeast Wyoming...western South Dakota and
southwest North Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 521...

Valid 180046Z - 180245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 521
continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for large hail, damaging wind and a brief tornado
will persist next couple hours from extreme northwest NE, western SD
into southwestern ND. Greatest storm coverage should remain across
western SD.

DISCUSSION...Early this evening widely scattered storms that
initiated over the higher terrain of northeast WY are moving into
western SD and extreme northwest NE. Other more isolated storms that
developed along a surface boundary are moving southeast through
southern ND. The downstream atmosphere is moderately unstable with
1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE and this region is within belt of moderate
westerlies supporting 35-45 kt effective bulk shear favoring
supercells. The 00Z RAOB from Rapid City indicates a modest capping
inversion between 850 and 700 mb which may eventually become
problematic for surface-based storm sustenance as convective
inhibition increases later this evening. In the meantime, pressure
perturbations within the rotating updrafts should help sustain
storms at least another couple hours as activity moves into a more
unstable environment.

..Dial.. 07/18/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON   43240440 44480395 46430311 46630156 45990043 42890236
            43240440



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