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ACUS11 KWNS 172325
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172324
MNZ000-180100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1511
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0624 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

Areas affected...northern Minnesota

Concerning...Tornado Watch 519...

Valid 172324Z - 180100Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 519 continues.

SUMMARY...A couple of tornadoes, large hail and locally strong wind
gusts remain possible through mid evening with the greatest tornado
threat across the eastern two thirds of the WW.

DISCUSSION...Early this evening widely scattered supercells persist
over north central MN near the international border. Activity is
developing partly in association with a progressive shortwave trough
moving through southern Manitoba and where the boundary layer has
undergone modest recovery with 1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE based on
latest objective analysis. This region remains within belt of
stronger mid level flow supporting 40-50 kt effective bulk shear
favorable for supercells. Tornado threat is greatest where surface
winds are backed to south and southeasterly east of a trough axis
and in vicinity of a warm front where 0-1 km storm relative helicity
ranges from 200-300 m2/s2. Otherwise, large hail and isolated
damaging wind remain possible with discrete supercell modes next 2-3
hours.

..Dial.. 07/17/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...

LAT...LON   47479248 47439364 48289410 48949444 48809303 48139233
            47479248



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