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AWUS01 KWNH 172252
FFGMPD
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-180351-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0625
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
652 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2019

Areas affected...Eastern PA...NJ...Southern NY...Southern New
England

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 172251Z - 180351Z

Summary...Thunderstorms capable of producing hourly totals as high
as 1.5" will persist into the mid evening hours. As storms move
over the more urban corridor from eastern PA through southern New
England, some flash flooding will be possible.

Discussion...GOES IR imagery still shows pockets of cooling cloud
tops associated with clusters of storms from the DC/Baltimore area
northeast through southern New England. This activity has been
associated with the remnants of Barry and is characterized by
anomalously high precipitable water values for the area (1.8 to
near 2.0" as it interacts with approaching cold front from the
northwest. The instability remains sufficient enough to sustain
the higher rain rates that the local radars are estimating

Overall this afternoon, storm motions have been somewhat
progressive which has kept the flash flood risk relatively
isolated/localized. However, as storms continue this evening,
there will still be risk for localized flash flooding as the
activity moves into the more urban corridors from eastern PA, NJ
through southern New England where the flash flood guidance is
lower. The storm motions will still be nearly parallel to the mean
flow through about 04Z, so some training and backbuilding will
remain possible. The threat for flash flooding will dissipate by
02Z or so as storms shift offshore with waning instability.

The latest hi-res guidance shows the highest probabilities for
locally 2-3" in the next 5 hours to be across far eastern PA,
central/northern NJ, and southern NY in and around the NYC metro
area. With this in mind, some localized/urban flash flooding will
be possible.

Taylor

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BOX...CTP...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NERFC...

LAT...LON   42187149 41987052 41807035 41547055 41427097
            41317189 41257220 41157256 41017301 40907335
            40647362 40507396 39937438 39767466 39777604
            39877655 40387640 40957584 41487530 41837482
            41897414 42117337 42027249 42067210


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