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AWUS01 KWNH 172228
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-180326-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0624
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
627 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2019

Areas affected...Eastern MO...Western IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 172226Z - 180326Z

Summary...Slow moving thunderstorms ahead of a more progressive
line of storms will converge and may lead to localized 2-4" totals
in and around the St. Louis metro area. Flash flooding will be
possible into the early/mid evening hours.

Discussion...Regional radar imagery late this afternoon showed an
organized line of thunderstorms dropping southeast toward the St.
Louis metro area while slower moving thunderstorms developing
southwest of the city drift east/northeastward.

The former complex has been a long lived line of thunderstorms
since earlier this morning and is primarily working on the
instability gradient that exists across eastern MO and western IL
presently. While the eastern flanks have been more progressive,
some merging and congealing of the storm cells on the western side
do pose a flash flood risk where the higher rain rates (1.5 to
2.0" per hour) may last for a longer time, particularly as it
approaches the St. Louis metro area.

The activity to the southwest formed on an old residual outflow
boundary that led to a differential heating gradient. Meso models
aren't handling this activity as well but generally show a slow
northeastward drift for a few more hours.

As these multiple boundaries intersect, there should be enough
remaining instability to initiate new convection in and around the
St Louis metro area. This could lead to higher rain rates over
urban areas and potentially put down 2-4" in a short time. As
such, some flash flooding will be possible into the early/mid
evening hours.

Taylor

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   39888977 39528932 39148901 38948889 38658890
            37698897 37428921 37178994 37069109 37699149
            38659186 39309179 39409105 39819047


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